A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
